The Not-Really-That-Much-Hype Cycle

So TheRealURL extension got “public” status at the addons.mozilla, and I guess it was on the “new add ons” or similar page for some time, which resulted in some nice graphs:

This is after about a week of pretty much flat lines, when it was still in the sandbox. The red line active daily users. Nothing crazy, but nice steady growth, all in all. I really like the way the blue line – daily downloads – matches nicely to the Hype Cycle line:

Well, there wasn’t that much “Peak of Inflated Expectations” so the “Trough of Disillusionment” wasn’t that deep either ;). 1,522 downloads in total so far, in about 2 weeks.

2 thoughts on “The Not-Really-That-Much-Hype Cycle

  1. Nice work! Gartner updated the Hype Cycle in 2008 based on our growing understanding of it. We now label the Y axis as ‘expectations'(this change has not made it to the wikipedia entry). Two components add up to make the hype cycle curve – social excitement and real adoption / usage value. Your selected measures are good proxies. If you add the two lines they roughly evidence the hype cycle shape. This is a relatively niche and quickly adopted innovation – so the peak is low and the trough is shallow.

    • Thanks, Mark! That’s very insightful (as expected from the people who coined the term ;)).

      I wonder what’s the long term effect of hype – is the plateau reached quicker thanks to a high peak? In a field geared towards quick rewards like web startups, it seems like quickly navigating to the plateau largely determines a company’s survival, unless the peak is wide enough to secure some funds.


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